| 摘要: |
| 伴随海洋产业与现代金融业的深度融合，资本市场已成为涉海企业投融资的重要渠道。然而当今世界重大风险事件频发，对资本市场造成强烈冲击，同时加速风险在资本市场的积累与蔓延，对涉海企业带来重大影响，损害海洋产业链供应链的安全与稳定。在此背景下，研究重大风险事件发生时期涉海企业间的风险溢出特征，挖掘不同产业板块间的风险溢出效应，有助于建立高效的风险防控及预警机制，提升海洋产业链供应链的韧性和安全水平，推动海洋经济的高质量增长。文章利用基于TVP-VAR模型的溢出指数法，对属于渔业、海油、海运及船舶产业板块的涉海企业间的风险溢出效应进行分析，并构建风险溢出网络进行拓扑特征分析。实证结果表明：涉海企业对同属产业板块企业的风险溢出强度最大；从产业角度看，渔业及海运产业是风险净接收者，海油及船舶产业是风险净溢出者；风险溢出效应具有时变特征，涉海企业的总体风险溢出指数在重大风险事件冲击下会呈现显著上升趋势；相较于无重大风险事件发生时期，风险溢出网络在重大风险事件发生时期的平均聚类系数更大，即涉海企业在网络中的连接更为紧密，风险流转效率更高。 |
| 关键词: 重大风险事件 涉海企业 海洋产业 风险溢出网络 |
| DOI：10.20016/j.cnki.hykfygl.2023.12.010 |
| Received:April 11, 2023Revised:November 26, 2023 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金青年项目（72003180）. |
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| The Risk Spillover Effect of Sea-related Enterprises Under Major Risk Events |
| LIU Yan,PAN Chen |
| School of Economics，Ocean University of China |
| Abstract: |
| With the deep integration of the marine industry and modern finance, the capital market has become an important channel for investment and financing of offshore enterprises. However, the frequent occurrence of major risk events in the world today has had a strong impact on the capital market. At the same time, it has accelerated the accumulation and spread of risks in the capital market, and has also had a significant impact on sea-related enterprises, damaging the safety and stability of the marine industry chain and supply chain. In this context, studying the risk spillover characteristics between sea-related enterprises when major risk events occur, exploring the risk spillover effects between different industrial sectors, helps to establish efficient risk prevention and warning mechanisms, improve the resilience and safety level of the marine industry chain and supply chain, and promote high-quality growth of the marine economy. This paper used the spillover index method based on the TVP-VAR model to analyze the risk spillover effects among sea-related enterprises belonging to the fishing, offshore oil, maritime, and shipbuilding industries, and constructed a risk spillover network for topological feature analysis. The empirical results showed that the risk spillover intensity of sea-related enterprises to enterprises in the same industry sector was the highest. From an industrial perspective, the fishing and shipping industries were net recipients of risk, while the offshore oil and shipping industries were net spillovers of risk. The risk spillover effect had a time-varying characteristic, and the overall risk spillover index of sea-related enterprises would show a significant upward trend under the impact of major risk events. Compared to the period without major risk events, the average clustering coefficient of the risk spillover network during the period of major risk events was larger, and the connections of sea-related enterprises in the network were closer, resulting in higher risk transfer efficiency. |
| Key words: Major risk events,Sea-related enterprises,Marine industry,Risk spillover network |
