| 摘要: |
| 随着全球能源竞争的日益激烈，北极这块能源“宝藏地”逐渐成为各国关注和争夺的焦点区域。文章综合生命周期理论与世界石油市场特征，分析北极国家构建石油生产方程的理论基础，选择多循环Hubbert模型与情景分析法构建北极国家石油生产方程；综合理论与实际情况，合理设定不同发展情景，分析北极地区石油资源对北极国家石油产量的影响，进而研究北极地区石油资源的开发潜力。研究结果表明：北极地区的石油资源一旦得以开发，可使北极国家石油产量峰值时间递延2～4年；北极重点地区（西西伯利亚盆地、阿拉斯加北坡盆地、西北内陆盆地、斯维尔德鲁盆地）的未被发现可采石油资源更加丰厚，开发该地区石油资源的石油产量峰值时间递延效果更加明显。 |
| 关键词: 北极 石油资源 情景分析 开发潜力 |
| DOI：10.20016/j.cnki.hykfygl.2023.08.002 |
| Received:March 27, 2023Revised:July 22, 2023 |
| 基金项目:国家社会科学基金一般项目“‘北极航道’与世界贸易格局和地缘政治格局的演变研究”（17BGJ059）；教育部哲学社会科学研究后期资助重大项目“北极航道开发利用有关问题研究”（20JHQ016）. |
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| Evaluation of Oil Resources Development Potential in the Arctic Region |
| XU Qing,HU Maixiu |
| Shanghai Ocean University |
| Abstract: |
| With the increasingly fierce global energy competition, the Arctic, a “treasure land” of energy, has gradually become the focus of competition among countries. Based on the life cycle theory and the characteristics of the world oil market, this paper analyzed the theoretical basis of constructing the oil production equation of Arctic countries, and selected the multi-cycle Hubbert model and scenario analysis method to construct the oil production equation of Arctic countries. Moreover, based on the actual situation of theory and reality, different development scenarios were reasonably set up in order to analyze the impact of oil resources in the Arctic on the oil production of Arctic countries, and then studied the development potential of oil resources in the Arctic. The results showed that once the oil resources in the Arctic were developed, the peak oil of Arctic countries could be postponed for 2~4 years. The key development areas in the Arctic (West Siberia Basin, North Slope Basin of Alaska, Northwest Inland Basin and Sverdru Basin) had not been found, and the recoverable oil resources were richer. The effect of deferring the oil peak when developing the oil resources in this area was more obvious. |
| Key words: Arctic,Petroleum resources,Scenario analysis,Tap potential |
