| 摘要: |
| 海域承载力（MCC）是判断海洋可持续发展能力的重要依据。文章从压力与承压力两方面构建包含海洋经济系统、海洋生态系统和海洋社会系统的MCC评价指标体系。基于2005—2014年中国沿海11个省（直辖市、自治区）的空间面板数据，运用状态空间法、Moran’s I指数和β收敛模型定量刻画MCC在中国三大海区间的空间差异及其收敛性。研究发现，一方面中国MCC常年处于超载状态，改善速度缓慢，总体不容乐观，且地理位置邻近或海洋经济发展水平相当的地区间MCC不存在显著的空间自相关；另一方面，MCC在三大海区间存在空间差异性，其中东海和南海MCC较高且承载状态改善较大，黄渤海MCC较低且未见明显改善。同时，MCC空间差异处于条件收敛过程，存在MCC较落后地区的追赶效应，但收敛趋势并不稳固。其中黄渤海MCC空间差异的收敛速度最快，南海次之，东海较慢。尤为有趣的发现是条件β收敛模型报告的结果显示各控制变量对不同海区MCC变化影响的相关性和显著性不同。南海MCC变化的动因在于海洋经济规模和社会支持力度的提高；东海MCC提升速度的加快存在显著的人口红利效应；与东海和南海不同，海洋经济的发展并非黄渤海MCC变化的显著动因，同时海洋环境污染的加重会显著降低黄渤海MCC的提升速度。此外，利用效率低下使得社会支持力度的加大对黄渤海MCC的提升收效甚微。 |
| 关键词: 海域承载力 空间差异 收敛性分析 定量评价 Moran’s I指数 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:浙江省社科规划重大项目（19XXJC02ZD）;国家自然科学基金面上项目（71874092）. |
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| Analysis of Spatial Difference and Its Convergence of China′s Marine Carrying Capacity |
| YU Xuan,HU Qiuguang |
| Business School of Ningbo University;Donghai Institute of Ningbo University |
| Abstract: |
| Marine Carrying Capacity (MCC) is an important basis for judging the sustainable marine development capability.This paper constructed an MCC evaluation index system including marine economic system,marine ecosystem and marine social system from two aspects of pressure and carrying pressure.Based on the spatial panel data of 11 provinces (municipalities) along the coast of China from 2005 to 2014,using state-space method,Moran′s I index and βconvergence model to quantitatively describe the spatial difference and convergence of MCC in the three seas of China.The study found: On the one hand,China′s MCC had been in an overloaded state all the year round,the improvement speed was slow,and the marine carrying state was generally not optimistic,and there was no significant spatial autocorrelation in the provincial MCC with geographical proximity or comparable levels of marine economic development.On the other hand,MCC had spatial differences in the three seas.The MCC in the East China Sea and the South China Sea was higher and the carrying state is improved.The MCC of the Huang Bohai was lower and no significant improvement was seen.Meanwhile,the MCC spatial difference was in the conditional convergence process,and there was a catch-up effect in backward areas,but the convergence trend was not stable.The MCC′s spatial difference convergence rate of the Huang Bohai Sea was the fastest,followed by the South China Sea and the East China Sea.A particularly interesting finding was that the results of the β-convergence model showed that the correlations and significance of the effects of each control variable on MCC changes in different sea areas were distinct.The motivation for the change of MCC in the South China Sea was due to the scale of the marine economy and the improvement of social support.There was a significant demographic dividend effect in the acceleration of the East China Sea′s MCC.Unlike the East China Sea and the South China Sea,the development of the marine economy was not a significant cause of the changes in the MCC of the Huang Bohai Sea.At the same time,the increase of the marine environmental pollution would significantly reduce the change speed of the MCC.In addition,the use of inefficiency had made the increase in social support less effective in improving the MCC of the Huang Bohai Sea. |
| Key words: Marine carrying capacity,Spatial difference,Convergence analysis,Quantitative evaluation,Moran′s I index |
