| 摘要: |
| 文章收集了 1982—2024 年间国家及南海沿海地方政府颁布的 233 份海洋生态环境政策文件，建立包含政策工具类型、治理控制过程和时间序列的三维量化评估模型，测算了各阶段政策效力，并运用熵值法和灰色关联分析法评估了不同政策工具的实施效果。研究结果表明：（1）政策体系大而不强，权威性不足是效力瓶颈；（2）政策工具结构失衡，路径依赖与效力错配并存；（3） 政策工具效力差异显著， 重审批、轻监管问题突出；（4） 政策协同严重不足， 整体治理合力难以形成。优化建议：（1） 强化法治保障与顶层设计， 从根本上摆脱政策效力不足的困境；（2）精准调控政策工具结构，打破对命令控制型工具的路径依赖；（3）构建多元协同的治理机制，系统性地化解政策碎片化难题；（4）健全基于证据的政策动态管理循环，有效应对政策滞后效应。 |
| 关键词: 海洋生态环境治理 政策工具效力评估 政策效果 灰色关联分析 |
| DOI：10.20016/j.cnki.hykfygl.2026.03.012 |
| 投稿时间：2026-03-04修订日期：2026-03-20 |
| 基金项目:国家社科基金“新时代海洋强国建设”重大研究专项（20VHQ004）；教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目（23YJAZH066）． |
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| Study on Selection and Optimization of Policy Tools for South China Sea Marine Ecological Environmental Governance |
| SHAN Tongtong,LI Qianghua |
| College of Economics and Management，Shanghai Ocean University;School of Marxism，Shanghai Ocean University |
| Abstract: |
| The article collected 233 marine ecological environment policy documents issued by the national government and coastal local governments along the South China Sea coast from 1982 to 2024．A three-dimensional quantitative evaluation model was established，including policy instrument type，governance control process and time series．The effectiveness of policies at different stages was calculated，and the implementation effect of different policy instruments was evaluated by entropy method and grey relation analysis method．The results indicate：（1）The policy system is “large but not strong,”with insufficient authority serving as a bottleneck for effectiveness．（2）The structure of policy tools is imbalanced，characterized by the coexistence of path dependence and“effectiveness mismatch.”（3）There are significant differences in the effectiveness of policy tools，with the problem of“over-reliance on approval and neglect of supervision”being prominent．（4）Policy synergy is severely lacking，making it difficult to form an overall governance synergy．Optimization suggestions include：（1）Strengthening legal guarantees and top-level design to fundamentally resolve the dilemma of insufficient policy effectiveness．（2）Precisely regulating the structure of policy tools to break the path dependence on command-and-control tools．（3）Constructing a diversified and collaborative governance mechanism to systematically resolve the problem of policy fragmentation．（4）Establishing a sound evidence-based policy dynamic management cycle to effectively address lag effects. |
| Key words: Marine ecological environmental governance Policy tool effectiveness evaluation Policy effect Grey relation analysis |
