| 摘要: |
| 文章以场景化气象服务与海洋牧场融合为核心目标，形成“理论框架—耦合机制—实践探索”的系统性研究分析路径。通过理论整合将海洋气象学基础和场景化服务理论相结合，提出以 “场景驱动链”为核心的闭环理论框架，明确“场景划分—场景需求识别—数据内容界定—主体 任务设计—数据整合方案”五阶递进流程，实现气象服务从“标准化供给”向“场景化响应”的 转型，形成场景化海洋牧场气象服务的理论框架。同时，以山东海洋牧场为实践对象，聚焦“近 海养殖”与“休闲渔业”两大核心场景搭建差异化服务体系。针对近海养殖场景，搭建“全要素 数据整合 + 动态服务输出”体系，形成“一品种一档案”的养殖适配与风险预警机制；针对休闲渔业场景，打造“点位信息整合 + 专属指数服务”模式，开发赶海指数和海钓适宜度指数等定制化产品。文章不仅证实了场景化气象服务对海洋牧场发展的支撑价值，其形成的理论框架与服务 范式也为全国海洋牧场气象服务优化提供了实践参考，对推动海洋牧场安全高效发展乃至海洋经 济与生态保护协同发展具有重要意义。 |
| 关键词: 海洋牧场 气象服务 场景化 |
| DOI：10.20016/j.cnki.hykfygl.2026.03.002 |
| 投稿时间：2025-07-14修订日期：2026-02-19 |
| 基金项目:山东省气象局榜单类专项（2023SDBD04）；山东省气象局引导类项目（2024SDYD09）；山东省气象局重点科研项目（2024sdqxz06）． |
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| Research on Scenario-Based Meteorological Services for Marine Ranching |
| GUO Tingting,SONG Ping,LI Xuxu,LI Wenke,SHENG Kai,YANG Lisha |
| Shandong Meteorological Service Center;Shandong Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation |
| Abstract: |
| Taking the integration of scenario-based meteorological services and marine ranching as the core goal，this study constructs a systematic research system of“theoretical framework-coupling mechanism-practical exploration”．It combines the fundamentals of marine meteorology and scenario-based service theories through theoretical integration， proposes a closed-loop theoretical framework centered on the“scenario-driven chain”，clarifies the five-stage progressive process of“scenario division-demand identification-data definition-task design-data integration”，realizes the transformation of meteorological services from“standardized supply”to“scenario-based response”，and forms a theoretical system for scenario-based meteorological services of marine ranching．Taking Shandong marine ranching as the practical object，the study focuses on the two core scenarios of“offshore aquaculture”and“recreational fishing”to build a differentiated service system: for the offshore aquaculture scenario，it establishes a system of “comprehensive data integration+dynamic service output”and forms a“one species，one profile”mechanism for aquaculture adaptability and risk early warning；for the recreational fishing scenario，it creates a model of“point information integration+exclusive index service”and develops customized products such as the beachcombing index and sea fishing suitability index．This study not only verifies the supporting value of scenario-based meteorological services for the development of marine ranching，but also provides practical references for the optimization of national marine ranching meteorological services with the formed theoretical framework and service paradigm，which is of great significance for promoting the safe and efficient development of marine ranching and the coordination development between marine economy and ecological protection． |
| Key words: Marine ranching Meteorological services Scenario-based services |
