| 摘要: |
| 河口要素时空分异是海岸带综合管理研究的重要内容。文章基于多年遥感影像数据和经济社会数据，研究广西北部湾入海河流河口要素的时空分异特征，结果表明：（1）自然要素空间分异显著，东部南流江展宽系数达 8.99 km，年均径流量为 5.18×109 m3，呈现“高径流—低含沙”特征； 西部北仑河分汊系数为 7，沉积类型复杂。（2）人类活动驱动下土地利用呈“水域缩减—建设扩张” 模式，钦州湾建设用地扩张了 112％，农田面积减少超过 55％ ；同时，区域经济发展分异明显，港 口区经济总量持续领先，而东兴市受边境贸易与疫情影响，2017—2020 年出现阶段性衰退。（3）自然灾害东—西分异明显，东部以洪涝为主，2020 年钦江洪灾致 1.2 万 hm2 农田受淹；西部多风暴潮与山洪链式灾害。海平面上升与极端气候事件加剧了灾害风险。基于上述特征，提出旅游休闲型、航运 贸易型与生态保护型三类河口的差异化治理路径，为海岸带综合管理、防灾减灾与生态保护提供 科学依据。 |
| 关键词: 时空分异 分汊系数 入海河流河口 海岸带管理 广西北部湾 |
| DOI：10.20016/j.cnki.hykfygl.2025.12.008 |
| 投稿时间：2025-04-07修订日期：2025-12-23 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金“北部湾南流江三角洲潮滩响应热带气旋的动力地貌过程”（42366008）；广西自然科学基金“平陆运河建设背景下钦江河口成潮入侵变化及其机制研究”（2025GXNSFHA069274）；2023 年广西壮族自治区级大学生创新创业训练计划项目“北部湾主要入海河流河口特征及可持续利用”（S202311607226）；2025 年广西壮族自治区级大学生创新创业训练计划项目“平陆运河建设背景下沙井港人工海滩养护研究”（S202511607209）． |
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| Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Estuarine Elements in Typical Estuaries of Rivers Flowing into the Beibu Gulf，Guangxi，Over the Past Two Decades |
| ZHANG Liuyi,YE Qingchun,LI Shushi,XU Shanshan,WANG Mengzhu |
| College of Marine Science，Beibu Gulf University;College of Resources and Environment，Beibu Gulf University;Guangxi Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Disaster Processes and Protection Technology，Beibu Gulf;Guangxi Field Scientific Observation and Research Station of Estuarine Bay Ecosystem of Pinglu Canal;Tiantao Experimental Middle School |
| Abstract: |
| The spatiotemporal differentiation of estuarine elements is an important aspect of integrated coastal zone management research．Based on many years of remote sensing imagery and socio-economic data，this study examines the spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics of estuarine elements in rivers flowing into the Beibu Gulf of Guangxi．The results indicate that：（1）The spatial differentiation of natural elements is significant． In the eastern region，the Nanliu River has a widening coefficient of 8.99 km and an average annual runoff of 5.18×109 m3，showing the feature of“high runoff-low sediment concentration”；in the western region，the Beilun River has a branching coefficient of 7，with complex sediment types；（2）Driven by human activities，land use shows a pattern of“reduced water area–expanded construction land”．Construction land in Qinzhou Bay expanded by 112％， while farmland area decreased by more than 55 ％．At the same time，regional economic development exhibits significant differentiation，with the port area maintaining a leading economic output，whereas Dongxing City experienced a temporary decline between 2017 and 2020 due to border trade and the pandemic；（3）Natural disasters show clear east-west differentiation，with floods dominating the eastern region，such as the 2020 Qin River flood which submerged 12,000 hm2 of farmland，while the western region faces storm surges and chain hazards of mountain floods．Sea level rise and extreme climatic events exacerbate disaster risks． Based on these characteristics，three differentiated estuarine governance pathways are proposed：tourism and leisure-oriented，shipping and trade-oriented，and ecological protection-oriented，providing a scientific basis for integrated coastal zone management，disaster prevention and reduction，and ecological conservation． |
| Key words: Spatiotemporal differentiation,Branching coefficient,Estuaries of rivers flowing into the sea, Coastal zone management,Beibu Gulf of Guangxi |
