| 摘要: |
| 我国水产品需求量日益增长，一味扩大产量势必会超出自然承载极限。为明确我国渔业资源可持续发展状况， 构建渔业生态足迹模型， 文章使用 2003—2023 年数据测度全国整体水域渔
业生态足迹与渔业生态承载力，并建立包含人口、经济、渔业生产、技术 4 个维度的变量体系， 使用岭回归进行影响因素分析，以偏最小二乘法进行稳健性检验，回归结果吻合度高且具有显著 性。研究表明，我国人均渔业足迹有不断扩大趋势，人均渔业生态承载力处于低位且依然有下行 压力，渔业资源压力严峻。经济因素、人口因素在不同程度上增加渔业生态足迹的同时负向影响 渔业生态承载力；渔业生产因素对渔业生态足迹具有正向影响，对渔业生态承载力的影响可能为 负向；技术因素显示生态保护技术与废水治理投资均有助于缓解渔业资源压力。建议转变渔业经 济模式发展生态渔业、优化产业结构、大力推广生态保护技术、鼓励技术创新、倡导绿色消费理 念、完善渔业资源管理相关法规，以促进我国渔业可持续发展。 |
| 关键词: 生态足迹 渔业资源可持续性 渔业生态足迹 渔业生态承载力 岭回归 偏最小二乘 |
| DOI：10.20016/j.cnki.hykfygl.2025.09.009 |
| 投稿时间：2025-01-14修订日期：2025-08-06 |
| 基金项目:农业农村部 2024 年全球重要鱼种资源监测评估项目 . |
|
| Research on the Sustainability of China’s Fishery Resources and Its Influencing Factors Based on the Ecological Footprint Model |
| LI Zongheng,WEI Youzhou |
| College of Economics and Management，Shanghai Ocean University |
| Abstract: |
| China’s demand for aquatic products is steadily increasing，however，unchecked expansion of production will inevitably exceed natural carrying capacity．This study constructs a fishery ecological footprint model and utilizes data from 2003 to 2023 to assess the sustainability of China’s fishery resources by re-evaluating the overall fishery ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of China’s waters．A variable framework encompassiong four dimensions—population，economy，fishery production，and technology，was established．Ridge regression was applied for factor analysis，with partial least squares（PLS）employed for robustness testing．The results show high goodness-of-fit and statistical significance．The study finds that China’s per capita fishery ecological footprint has been continuously expanding，while per capita fishery ecological carrying capacity remains low and faces downward pressure，indicating severe fishery resource stress．Economic and population factors，to varying degrees，increase the fishery ecological footprint while negatively impacting fishery ecological carrying capacity．Fishery production factors have a positive effect on the fishery ecological footprint，and their impact on ecological carrying capacity appears to be negative．Conversely，technology factors indicate that ecological protection technologies and wastewater treatment investments help alleviate the pressure on fishery resources．The study suggests transitioning to an ecological fishery development model，optimizing the industrial structure，promoting ecological protection technologiesand innovation， advocating for green consumption，and improving fishery resource management regulations to achieve sustainable development in China’s fishery sector. |
| Key words: Ecological footprint,Sustainability of fishery resources,Fishery ecological footprint,Fishery ecological carrying capacity,Ridge regression,Partial least squares |
