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齐庆华.印度洋热力分异与洋际协同对中国气候的影响及关键灾害风险初探[J].海洋开发与管理,2023,40(8):41-58
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| 印度洋热力分异与洋际协同对中国气候的影响及关键灾害风险初探 |
| 齐庆华 |
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| 自然资源部第三海洋研究所;福建省海洋物理与地质过程重点实验室 |
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| 摘要: |
| 印度洋是泛第三极海陆气系统的重要成员，同时是全面顺利推进“21世纪海上丝绸之路”建设的关键海域，其热力状况严重影响亚洲季风变异及我国和全球的气候变化。文章从印度洋热力异常的模态分型、中小尺度关联、海气相互作用过程、洋际协同效应以及对我国气候环境的关键影响风险等角度进行分析探讨，并针对研究现状和不足提出研究建议。结果表明：印度洋热力分异与跨区域多源、多尺度交互胁迫对我国东部季风气候与环境生态具有重要协同调控作用和高致灾风险。建议通过国际合作开展海洋全要素过程综合调查，夯实印度洋多维度系统观测体系，突出印度洋中小尺度动力过程研究，深化跨界面多尺度过程相互作用、影响和适应有关的耦合机理、联合影响、协同效应气候诊断分析，明确作用隶属和通道机制；发展大数据诊断人工智能和机器学习自适应自组织新方法与数字孪生新技术，丰富中小尺度理论和建模研发，提高我国季风气候和海洋环境变化及其极端灾害研究与预测水平，服务于关键风险预估和等级区划以及灾害精准防治，为“21世纪海上丝绸之路”的气候与海洋环境安全保障及我国防灾减灾与风险治理提供必要科学参考和科技支撑。 |
| 关键词: 季节内振荡 季风暴发 海气相互作用 副热带高压 气候与极端灾害风险 |
| DOI：10.20016/j.cnki.hykfygl.20230912.004 |
| 投稿日期：2022-12-04修订日期：2023-08-11 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金重点项目(42130406)；自然资源部第三海洋研究所基本科研业务费专项项目(海三科2022027)；“全球变化与海气相互作用(二期)”专项项目(GASI-04-WLHY-01,GASI-04-WLHY-03)；亚洲合作资金资助项目“典型海湾生态保护与管理示范研究”；国家重点研发计划重点专项项目“全球变化及应对”(2017YFA0604901) ；中国工程院战略研究与咨询学部重大项目“深度参与全球海洋治理的重大科技问题战略研究”. |
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| The Impact of Indian Ocean Thermal Differentiation and Interoceanic Synergy on China′s Climate and the Key Disaster Risk |
| QI Qinghua |
| Third Institute of Oceanography，MNR;Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Marine Physical and Geological Processes |
| Abstract: |
| The Indian Ocean is an important member of the Pan Tertiary Sea-Land-Air System, and a key sea area to comprehensively and smoothly promote the construction of the “21st Century Maritime Silk Road”. Its thermal status seriously impacts the Asian monsoon variability and further China and global climate changes. This paper analyzed and discussed the Indian Ocean thermal anomaly from the perspectives of mode classification, meso and small scale association, air sea interaction process, inter-ocean synergistic effect, and the risk of key impacts on China′s climate and environment, and put forward research suggestions based on the research status and deficiencies. The results showed that the Indian Ocean thermal differentiation and cross regional multi-source and multi-scale interaction and coordination played an important role in synergistic regulating the monsoon climate and environmental ecology in eastern China and caused serious disaster risks. It was suggested to carry out a comprehensive ocean survey of total factor and whole process through international cooperation, consolidate the multi-dimensional systematic observation system of the Indian Ocean, highlight the research on the meso and small-scale dynamic processes in the Indian Ocean, deepen the climate diagnosis analysis of the coupling mechanism, joint influence and synergistic effect related to the interaction, influence and adaptation of the cross interface multi-scale processes, and clarify the role subordination and channel mechanism. It is important to develop self adaptive and self-organizing new methods of big data diagnostic with artificial intelligence and machine learning as well as digital twin new technology, enrich the research and development of small and medium-resoluted theories and modeling, improve the research and prediction level of China′s monsoon climate, marine environment change and particularly extreme disasters, in order to serve for key risk prediction, hierarchical regionalization and accurate disaster prevention, and providing necessary scientific reference and technology support for the climate and marine environment security of the “21st Century Maritime Silk Road” and disaster prevention,mitigation and risk governance in China. |
| Key words: Intraseasonal oscillation,Monsoon outbreak,Air sea interaction,Subtropical high,Climate and extreme disaster risk |
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