| 摘要: |
| 为促进广东沿海经济带物流业的快速发展以及增强经济运行活力，文章以广东沿海经济带15个城市为研究对象，选取经济发展水平、物流发展规模、物流基础设施和信息化水平4个评价指标，采用熵权TOPSIS、马尔科夫链和泰尔指数等方法，分析物流发展水平的时空演变；引入地理探测器，选取交通基础设施水平、经济发展水平、对外开放水平、产业结构、城镇化水平、信息化水平、政府干预水平和区位因素为关联因子，探究物流业发展的驱动因素，并提出政策建议。研究结果表明：广东沿海经济带各城市之间存在发展水平不平衡、不协调和区域差异大等问题，物流发展水平在不同时期和不同阶段呈现不同演变规律，各关联因子随着宏观环境的调整逐渐展现不同的影响力。 |
| 关键词: 广东沿海经济带 物流业 泰尔指数 地理探测器 区域差异 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:广东省哲学社会科学共建项目(GD16XGL29). |
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| The Spatio-temporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Logistics Development Level in Guangdong Coastal Economic Zone |
| ZENG Weiye,ZHOU Tingting,ZHANG Jingyi,GAO Xiuli |
| School of Management，Guangdong Ocean University |
| Abstract: |
| In order to promote the rapid development of the logistics industry in the coastal economic zone of Guangdong and enhance the vitality of economic operation, the paper took 15 cities in the coastal economic zone of Guangdong as the research object and selected 4 evaluation indicators of economic development level, logistics development scale, logistics infrastructure, and information level, analyze the temporal and spatial evolution of logistics development level by using entropy weight-TOPSIS, Markov chain, and Theil index method. Geographic detectors were introduced, and transportation infrastructure level, economic development level, openness level, industrial structure, urbanization level, informatization level, government intervention level and location factors as related factors were selected, to explore the driving factors of logistics development, and policy suggestions were proposed. The results showed that there were problems such as unbalanced, uncoordinated, and large regional differences in development levels among cities in the coastal economic zone of Guangdong, and the logistics development level presents different evolutionary laws in different periods and stages, and different location factors were also different. With the adjustment of the macro environment, different factors would gradually show their influence. |
| Key words: The coastal economic zone of Guangdong,Logistics industry,Theil index,Geographic detector,Regional differences |
