| 摘要: |
| 对快速增长的海洋经济做出可靠的预测，可以深化对海洋经济发展规律的认识，对确定海南省海洋经济增长前景和目标、制定海洋开发战略具有重要的实践和参考意义。文章在对比不同预测方法的基础上，基于现有的数据基础，遴选出灰色系统模型与时间序列模型作为预测工具，对海南省海洋生产总值进行预测。研究结果表明:①与时间序列模型相比，灰色系统模型在海南省海洋经济预测方面更为有效。②目前海南省海洋经济正处于成长期，未来10年仍将保持快速增长。③根据预测结果，到2025年海南省海洋生产总值将达到3 340亿元，年均增长率约为12.5%。 |
| 关键词: 海洋经济 经济预测 灰色系统模型 时间序列模型 海南省 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目: |
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| Analysis on the Developing Trend of Marine Economy in Hainan Province |
| CHEN Fenggui,WU Yaojian,ZHANG Chao,JIANG Yuhuan |
| Third Institute of oceanography,MNR |
| Abstract: |
| Making a reliable forecast of the fast-growing marine economy could deepen the understanding of the law of marine economic development,and has important practical and reference significance for determining the growth prospects and goals of marine economy in Hainan Province and formulating the marine development strategy.On the basis of comparing the characteristics of different forecasting methods and existing data,this paper selected grey system model and time series model as forecasting tools to forecast the gross ocean product of Hainan Province.The results show that: (1) Compared with time series model,grey system model is more effective in forecasting marine economy of Hainan Province.(2) At present,the marine economy of Hainan Province is in the growth stage,and will maintain rapid growth in the next ten years.(3) According to the forecast results,by 2020,the gross ocean product of Hainan Province will probably reach 185 billion yuan,with an average annual growth rate of about 13.1%;By 2025,the gross ocean product of Hainan Province will probably reach 334 billion yuan,with an average annual growth rate of about 12.5%. |
| Key words: Marine economy,Economic forecast,Grey system model,Time series model,Hainan Province |
