| 摘要: |
| 随着沿海地区经济的快速发展，海洋陆源性污染日益严重，加强陆海统筹、联防联控治理已迫在眉睫。文章基于系统动力学（SD），构建系统仿真模型，研究不同的联防联控机制情景对浙江省海洋陆源性污染的影响效应。仿真结果表明：联防联控机制将有效减少浙江省入海陆源废水的排放，但是对GDP影响较弱；相较于维持联防联控机制的实施现状，提高排污标准、技术投入、环境治理投资总额、法律约束力等联防联控三大机制的实施强度对浙江省海洋陆源性污染的治理效应更为显著；不同联防联控机制情景的仿真结果存在一定的差异，技术投入和环境治理投资总额的增加对浙江省海洋陆源性污染的治理效果最为明显。提出：制定更加严格的排污标准,控制陆源污染源头;拓宽环境治理投资和技术投入的支持渠道,提高陆源污染物净化效率;完善联防联控立法,加强联合防治监管能力,强化法律的约束力等建议。 |
| 关键词: 联防联控机制 海洋陆源性污染 陆海统筹 浙江省 SD仿真 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:“浙江省哲社规划课题/重大招标课题：浙江近岸海域生态环境陆海统筹治理机制创新及政策优化研究”（19XXJC02ZD）的阶段性成果之一. |
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| SD Simulation Analysis for Joint Prevention and Control of Marine Land-based Pollution: Based on the empirical evidence of Zhejiang Province |
| WANG Fang,HU Qiuguang |
| School of Business，Ningbo University |
| Abstract: |
| With the rapid economic development in coastal areas，marine and terrestrial pollution is becoming increasingly serious，and it is urgent to strengthen land and sea coordination and joint prevention and control.Based on system dynamics (SD)，this paper built a system simulation model to study the effect of different scenarios of joint defense and control mechanisms on marine terrestrial pollution in Zhejiang Province.Simulation results showed that:(1)the joint prevention and control mechanism would effectively reduce the discharge of terrestrial water pollution from the Zhejiang Province,but its impact on GDP was weak;(2) compared with maintaining the implementation status of the joint prevention and control mechanism,improving the implementation intensity of the three major mechanisms of joint prevention，such as sewage standards,technology investment,total environmental governance investment,and legal binding force and et al.,has a more significant effect on the treatment of marine landbased pollution in Zhejiang Province.(3) There are some differences in the simulation results of different scenarios of joint defense and joint control mechanisms.The increase in the total investment in technology and environmental governance has the most obvious effect on the treatment of marine landbased pollution in Zhejiang Province.In view of the conclusions above,the following suggestions were made，firstly，to formulate more stringent pollution discharge standards to control the source of landbased pollution;secondly,to broaden the support channels for environmental governance investment and technological input to improve the purification efficiency of landbased pollutants;and thirdly，to improve the joint prevention and control legislation,strengthen joint prevention and control supervision capabilities to strengthen legal constraints force and other suggestions. |
| Key words: Joint prevention and control mechanism,Marine land based pollution,Land sea coordination,Zhejiang Province,SD simulation |
