摘要: |
文章对1996—2015年江苏省海洋经济数据进行预处理,运用时间序列分析方法中的自回归移动平均(ARMA)模型,按序列平稳性检验、模型阶数识别、最优模型选择、模型显著性检验以及模型建立和预测5个步骤,最终选取自回归求和移动平均(ARIMA)模型(2,2,1),对“十三五”时期江苏省海洋生产总值进行预测。预测结果表明:“十三五”时期江苏省海洋生产总值将保持较快增长趋势,至2020年海洋生产总值将达9 407亿元。结合江苏省海洋经济发展现状和趋势,为促进海洋经济可持续发展,提出加强海洋生态环境保护、培育壮大优势海洋产业、加大海洋科技创新投入和提升港口综合实力的建议。 |
关键词: 海洋生产总值 自回归移动平均模型 时间序列分析 海洋经济 经济预测 |
DOI: |
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基金项目:江苏省海洋科技创新专项项目(HY2017-2). |
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Forecasting on the Gross Marine Product of Jiangsu Province during the Period of the National-13th-Five-Year-Plan |
QIU Yu,SONG Xiaocun,LUO Feng |
Tidal Flat Research Center of Jiangsu Province |
Abstract: |
Based on the data preprocess of the gross marine product in Jiangsu province from 1996 to 2015,this paper applied time series analysis method to set up ARMA model.According to the 5 steps of test for stationary of time series,order recognition,optimal selection,significance test,establishment and prediction of model,the ARIMA model(2,2,1) was chosen to predict the gross marine product of Jiangsu province during the 13th fiveyear plan period.The result indicated that,during the period of the National-13th-Five-Year-Plan,the trend of rapid growth on the gross marine product of Jiangsu province will be maintained,and the gross marine product of Jiangsu province is expected to reach 940.7 billion Yuan by 2020.Combined with the current situation and developing trend of marine economy in Jiangsu province,suggestions on strengthening marine ecological environment protection,developing dominating marine industries,increasing the investment in marine science and technology innovation,and enhancing the comprehensive strength of the port were proposed to promote the sustainable development of marine economy. |
Key words: Gross Marine Product,ARMA model,Analysis of time series,Marine economy,Economic forecasting |