| 摘要: |
| 文章采用灰色预测法，选取2001—2016年我国海洋生产总值作为基础数据，建立海洋经济发展预测模型即GM(1,1)模型；运用残差检验、关联度检验和后验差检验对该模型精度进行检验，同时运用该模型对已知年份数据进行预测并将预测值与实际值相比较，结果表明模型预测精度较高，对于短期预测具有可信度；在此基础上，运用GM(1,1)模型计算和预测2017—2021年我国海洋生产总值，得出我国海洋经济将保持稳步增长的结论。 |
| 关键词: 海洋经济 经济发展预测 海洋生产总值 灰色预测法 GM(1,1)模型 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:国家海洋局资助项目“全国海洋主体功能区配套政策及有关专题研究”（Y21702011）；国家海洋技术中心科技创新基金项目“我国近岸海洋开发强度评价技术研究：以市县级为单元”（Y21700406） |
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| Prediction of Marine Economic Development Based on GM (1,1) Model |
| LI Lianghong,DONG Yue′e |
| School of Economics Hebei University of China;National Ocean Technology Center |
| Abstract: |
| Gross domestic marine product data of 2001—2016 were selected,and the gray prediction method was used to establish the model of marine economic development prediction,i.e.GM (1,1) in this paper.The accuracy of the model was tested by the residual test,the correlation degree test and the post test difference test.At the same time,the model was used to predict the known year data and compared with the actual value.The results showed that the accuracy of the model was high,and it had reliability for shortterm prediction.The gross domestic marine product data of 2017—2021 was calculated and predicted,and the conclusion was drawn that the marine economy of our country would maintain a steady growth in future. |
| Key words: Marine economy,Economic development forecast,Gross domestic marine product,Gray prediction,GM (1,1) model |
